Tag: Future Trends

Recession Over but We’re Not Out of Woods Yet

Today’s headline blared: “Recession officially ends, with trepidation.” Ain’t that the truth! In officially declaring the recession over, the U.S. Commerce Department cited a 3.5% growth in the economy. Encouraging, certainly. Something to cheer about? Apparently Wall Street thought so as the Dow Jones Industrial average shot up nearly 200 points. But the guy or gal on the street? Maybe not so much. The effect seems more psychological than actual. Economists caution that much of the 3.5% increase in gross domestic product was fueled by the government’s Cash for Clunkers program and first-time homebuyers tax credit. Whether those programs have created an unnatural spike in economic growth that can’t be maintained or the economy really is finally throwing off the chill of recession, only time will tell. But until unemployment decreases, most analysts agree we’re not out of the woods yet.

Getting people back to work is the real challenge now. People aren’t going to start buying again — the necessary trigger for real economic improvement — until they have jobs and can stop worrying about keeping food on the table and a roof over their heads. And the jobs won’t be there until American businesses feel comfortable financially. A bit of a vicious circle: consumer purchasing fuels businesses which fuel jobs. Traditionally, small businesses provide the greatest potential for U.S. job growth; so it was interesting to read the results of the American Express OPEN Small Business Monitor bi-annual survey in Manufacturing & Technology eJournal.

Here are some of the survey highlights:

  • 51% of manufacturers have a positive outlook, about the same as last year (52%)
  • 61% are experiencing serious cash flow difficulties, compared to 47% a year ago
  • only 22% plan to hire additional employees, down from 30% six months ago 
  • only 36% are planning capital investments, down from 59% in 2008
  • 68% think U.S. economic woes are far from over

DJ Products would like to know what you think and how your business is coping with the recession.

New Trends Will Affect Speed, Strength of Economic Recovery

The heart monitor on the economy has started beeping again, apparently shocked into recovery by the dual application of bailout money and stimulus funds. Of course, there’s still concern that the cure may prolong the patient’s recovery but the big guy does seem to be on the mend. Many economic analysts are now predicting that true recovery from the recession may begin as early as next quarter, that’s six months to a year ahead of previous predictions. Naturally, there’s disagreement about the strength and speed of the economy’s recovery. “The question is whether we are transitioning to a solid growth period or to something flatter,” explained Dr. Chris Kuehl, economic analyst for the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association International (FMA), in the FMA economic newsletter Fabrinomics.  

Kuehl pegs the strength of the economy’s recovery to three emerging trends that manufacturers and businessmen will need to factor into their plans as they position themselves to compete in the post-recession market:

  • Cautious consumers. High unemployment and the continuing threat of job loss has made consumers wary of spending and further depleting any financial reserves they have left. Most economists expect consumer spending to lag other signs of recovery, further slowing the recovery process. Until unemployment rates return to post-crisis norms and consumers regain confidence in the economy, demand for goods and services is expected to remain low.
  • Consolidation. Financial chaos has forced mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. and around the world, and not just in the automotive industry, Kuehl points out. Manufacturing bases have gone global, shifting from the U.S. and Europe to Asia, particularly China, and Latin America. Digging a toehold into these markets will be essential — and extremely challenging — if manufacturers, especially smaller players, are to survive. The complexities of global business may encourage even more consolidation as small manufacturers partner with larger ones or form cooperatives to gain global access.
  • Unsettled financial markets. While banks and financial entities took the brunt of the first blow, they haven’t carried the burden of the economic crisis. Even so, they are still recovering which will continue to make them wary of lending money. The yet-to-be-known impact of new government oversight and regulation will also be a factor. Kuehl sees a return of the “old-school banker” with tougher credit standards, demands for greater cash flow, and less money available for growth and expansion.

New Marketing Strategies Needed to Survive Lean Years Ahead

With the economic prognosis dim for 2009, U.S. manufacturers and businessmen need to rethink basic marketing strategies. Gone are the comfortable days of order backlog that manufacturers have enjoyed since the post-WWII. Everyone is scrambling to find new customers and new markets for their products. As Doug Gregory of Diamond Group Marketing pointed out in a February 9, 2009 article on Manufacturing & Technology eJournal, “you can’t cut and save your way to survival and profitability.”

To survive the next few lean years, you’re going to have to take excellent care of your current customers and work hard to find new ones. Gregory recommends a number of marketing strategies proven during previous downturns to help companies survive and even thrive. We’ve added some comments based on the benefit of our own experience here at DJ Products in building a successful material handling company with a national reputation for innovation, quality products and superior customer service.

  • Aggressive marketing. Many companies cut back on marketing efforts during a downturn. Survivors will buck the tide and increase marketing across the board. During tough economic times, potential customers do more shopping around looking for the best bargains. Getting your company name out there where they’re looking gives you a better chance to snag the sale.
  • Customer service. Without your customers you won’t have a business. Keeping customers happy must always be a top priority. During economic downturns competition heats up and you have to work even harder to keep your customers from jumping ship and going with the competition. Keep in regular contact with your customers so you’re right there to meet their needs as they arise. In a downturn, companies typically decrease inventories to cut expenses. You’ll benefit if you can provide customers with fast order turnaround and guaranteed delivery dates.
  • Strategic diversification. A tight economy forces you to expand and diversify your customer list, but make sure you don’t lose your core focus. You don’t want to dilute the expertise that sets you apart from your competitors and draws customers to you in the first place. Look for new customers with needs similar to those you now serve. Take a look at your current customers’ competition. With the same needs as your present customers, they present a ready market for your products.

Next time: Where to look for new marketing opportunities.

Where to Find New Marketing Opportunities

Competition is even tougher than it was before. Most sectors of the economy are expected to post losses through 2009 with little improvement expected until sometime in 2010. The bottom line is that for the next year or two everyone is going to be scrambling for a bite of a much smaller pie. In our last post we shared survival tips from DJ Products’ own experience and from Doug Gregory of Diamond Group Marketing (see his February 9, 2009 article on Manufacturing & Technology eJournal). Aggressive marketing, superior customer service and strategic diversification can help your business survive a bear economy, but to thrive you’re going to have to start searching for new customers.

Gregory and others agree that there are bright spots glimmering amidst the general economic gloom. Certain industries are expected to thrive and grow in the coming few years despite the downturn. Savvy firms will target marketing and sales campaigns to take advantage of expected growth in the following economic sectors:

  • Food industry. As Rally’s, a local burger joint, advertises, “You gotta eat!” The entire food supply chain from farm to table provides multiple opportunities for growing your customer base. Agricultural equipment, fertilizer, transportation, processing, packaging and retailing are just the tip of the food industry pyramid.
  • Pharmaceutical/health care industries. Baby Boomers, the world’s largest population segment, are aging. Demand for pharmaceuticals, health care products and health care services is expected to increase and remain steady over the next three decades.
  • Energy industry. Companies that produce, process or deliver energy products are excellent growth targets. With support from President Obama, increasing federal funds will fuel the development of alternative energy options. However, viable nationwide replacement of current energy sources is years, even decades, in the future. Current oil, gas and coal operations are expected remain strong with increases coming in their development of new, cleaner, more cost efficient applications for their products.
  • Transportation industry. Traditional transportation will still flounder for a while until production volumes and consumer spending improve. But there will be opportunity in infrastructure improvement and rebuilding fueled by federal stimulus spending and job creation. And watch for opportunities in new public transportation options still on the drawing board. Last year public transportation ridership posted a 52-year record high. As America struggles with energy issues and global warming, expect increases in innovative mass transit projects.
  • Look south. Southeast and Gulf Coast states are experiencing a manufacturing boom benefiting in part from post-Katrina spending. Census figures indicate that Americans are moving south, seeking jobs and better weather. Environmentalists are leery about the Southwest, however; which is already experiencing water shortages and some fear believe is on the cusp of long-term, possibly terminal draught.

Manufacturing Rebound Glimmers on the Horizon

With the dawn of a new political era in Washington, U.S. industry experts are cautiously predicting that manufacturing’s darkest days are over and that a rebound can be expected within the next six months. Analysts seem to agree that the Institute for Supply Management Index (ISM) finally bottomed out and will now begin to grow.

“Much depends on some proposed government actions and the reaction of the financial community,” Chris Kuehl, an economic analyst for the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association, told writer Joe Cogliano in the January 6, 2009 edition of Manufacturing & Technology eJournal, “but assuming that the credit crisis continues to diminish there will be some recovery in certain sectors.”

In anticipation of President Obama’s promised economic initiatives to create jobs, rebuild infrastructure and move to alternative fuels, Kuehl expects businesses that supply construction material and machinery and those in energy development to lead the recovery. He said that media saturation about the dire straights of the automotive and construction industries has obscured any good news about the state of U.S. manufacturing. He noted that medical manufacturing has actually grown during the recession and that the aerospace industry has held firm. 

A double digit production decline in the 4th quarter of 2008 is expected to be manufacturing’s low point. The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) predicts a continued but gradually decreasing decline across most industry sectors for the first three quarters of 2009 before the advent of slowly rising numbers. NAM expects the final months of 2009 to bring a 1.4% increase in manufacturing rates.

Experts agree that while economic downturns take a toll on industry, they also serve to cull out weak, mismanaged and antiquated companies. Those that survive are stronger, more efficient, more resource conscious and more productive. On a larger scale, benefits of the economic crisis include a new era of better risk and credit management by both lenders and borrowers, new avenues of industrial growth, and deeper understanding and a necessary re-evaluation of global trading relationships and their impact on U.S. economy.

“The challenge for all of us is to determine if this is a ‘disaster’ or an ‘opportunity,'” Norbert Ore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee told Manufacturing & Technology eJournal. “If we choose disaster, we will be paralyzed during a period of great change, and we will assume that there is little hope of prosperity for ourselves and our organizations. If we choose opportunity, we can view this as the time to face challenges head on and find more productive ways to create value for ourselves and society.”

Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The Dow is plunging, financial institutions are failing, credit is drying up and long-time Wall Street icons are plummeting into bankruptcy. The U.S. economy seems to be falling like a poorly stacked house of cards. The news is full of doom and gloom and more gloom. Is there light at the end of the tunnel?

In a word, yes. But it may be a long tunnel, say manufacturing experts. There are things you can do to calm worried employees and weather the storm, says Joe Cogliano in Manufacturing & Technology eJournal.

  • Keep your staff in the communications loop, says Jay Kuhn, president of Definity Partners, a business improvement company. When the economy tightens up, employees worry about job security, providing for their family, even putting gas in their car to get to work. All that worrying takes a toll on worker productivity. Being honest about what’s happening in your company will bolster employee morale. “Workers are going home and they are hearing bad news everyday,” says Kuhn. “It’s important they know what’s going on because everything the company does is really going to be taken as a negative sign, whether it’s meant to be taken that way or not.” Employers should be prepared to answer questions and explain even minor changes like switching an insurance carrier to reign in employee nervousness. Keeping employees in the loop can alleviate their fears and keep office gossip in hand.
  • Keep things positive. Worry and stress take a physical toll on workers which can result in increased absence rates. Keeping things positive helps make workers want to come to work.
  • Embrace patriotism. Historically, Americans respond positively to hardship and sacrifice when they know they are helping their country. “Small and medium-sized businesses need to realize they’re the backbone of our economic growth and job creation,” says David Velie, managing partner of Amend Consulting/Techsolve, a manufacturing improvement consulting firm. “Remind teams that they’re the strength of the economy, not the Fortune 500s and the housing sector.”
  • Maintain your cash flow. Take a close look at factors that affect your cash flow. You may need to reign in credit terms and be more aggressive about collections to improve your cash flow. Watch for potential cash-draining trouble spots. Kuhn says business owners should base every decision on a “cash is king” model.

Things may be rough for all of us for a year or two, but as Kuhn points out, “The economy does come back; it always comes back.”

2010 Material Handling Shows Help Position You for Future

The poor economy led to lower attendance at 2009 material handling shows but 2010 promises to be a better year. Companies trying to hold onto their bottom line may have skipped last year’s show or sent only a token delegate or two. With the manufacturing and peripheral industries finally starting to post small increases, material handling and related industries are anticipating better attendance at 2010 conferences.

Annual conferences and trade shows offer unique opportunities to see what’s new in the industry and what the future holds. Staying up-to-date with your industry enables you to better position yourself to meet future demands. National trade shows are an excellent place to network. They’re a good place to search for new talent to strengthen or rejuvenate your operation. They’re also an excellent place to form alliances with other company representatives that can lead to greater national exposure and increased product sales.

Continuing education classes and workshops provide information on innovative solutions to management and marketing problems. Round table discussions provide an opportunity to trade techniques and strategies with other industry professionals. Dealer and product give you an opportunity to learn about new products, increase your product knowledge, and discover products or services that can augment or revitalize your current product line.

The big national material handling conference/trade shows scheduled for 2010 include:

  • NA 2010: Solutions that Make the Supply Chain Work sponsored by the Material Handling Industry of America (MHIA) will be held April 26-29 at the I-X Center in Cleveland, Ohio. The event will focus on positioning your business to take advantage of future trends. Click here for more information.
  • 2010: The Rules Have Changed sponsored by the Material Handling Equipment Distributors Association (MHEDA) will be held May 1-5 at the Marriott Marco Island Resort & Spa on Marco Island, Florida. The conference will focus on providing insight into recession-driven maketing and economic trends. Click here for more information.

Hope for the Future: Redefining the Auto Industry

Despite harsh criticism, the President and Congress seem poised to throw a lifeline to America’s struggling auto industry. Critics say Detroit’s problems stem from 30 years of short-sightedness and poor decision-making. Failure to recognize future trends toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles compounded by failure to aggressively address budget-busting labor demands head critics’ lists of the poor management practices that have led to the U.S. auto industry’s financial woes (see our Nov. 12 post). Today, the auto industry defends itself.

U.S. auto industry representatives dispute their critics, saying critics oversimplify the issues and don’t credit automakers for the significant progress made in recent years. “In the last five years, there’s been more restructuring done in the automotive business than any other business in the history of the United States,” said Tony Cervone, General Motors VP of communications.

Auto industry spokesmen cite a decade’s worth of tough cost cutting measures, improved productivity and their switch to the production of more competitive, fuel-efficient cars as indications that Detroit has been working hard to reverse course and increase its competitiveness with popular foreign imports. They point out that their ability to compete is severely hampered by the demands of powerful labor unions and the strictures of multiple government regulations.

The recessionary economy and tight credit have placed additional burdens on automakers. New car sales are down, in part, because consumers aren’t spending. Across the economic board, consumers are harboring their financial resources and taking a wait and see attitude about the nation’s economic future. Adding insult to injury, the tight credit market has made it nearly impossible for people who want to buy a new car to get financing. Burned by the mortgage meltdown, banks have reined in lending practices and raised loan requirements.

The news isn’t all doom and gloom, however. Capitalizing on fuel-efficient designs initiated in 2000, Detroit is finally rolling out cheaper, competitive alternatives to the Asian-designed vehicles that dominate that sector of the market. Financial pressure is forcing the industry to consolidate and streamline production practices. President-elect Obama’s reminder to the American people that we will all have to sacrifice if the country is to weather the current economic crisis could play out in more reasonable labor contracts. And that Congressional lifeline is likely to come with lots of strings attached that should give Detroit the needed incentive to redefine itself more competitively.

Next time: Lessons to be learned from the auto industry meltdown

Making the Most of Your Space

A few years back, when business was booming, the answer to the need for increased space because of increased business was simple – upgrade to a larger facility that can handle the increase of inventory.  Now things aren’t quite so simple, increases in margins remain slim and there is constant competition to attract and keep new customers, so many business are leery about taking on greater overheads to try and meet customer demands – instead businesses are being forced to recreate the space that they are in an effort to hold the necessary inventory to satisfy customer demands.

This may mean changing storage racks, warehouse aisles and converting office space in order to make room for additional product storage and this restructuring of space may also mean that the equipment being used may no longer be as effective with the more constrained spaces.  Traditional forklifts can be bulky and may need a good deal of space to  maneuver  around a warehouse  – if you decrease the amount of room for travel there may no longer be enough room for a large forklift to effectively operate.

Though upgrading to smaller, safer and more efficient equipment will bring about an initial investment, unlike assuming a new lease for a larger space, this investment will immediately begin to pay for itself.  The powered carts and lifts from DJ Products allow a single employee to move heavy loads around in the smallest places easily – meaning that your employees won’t struggle at all in the smaller and more cramped spaces and that your business will maintain the same level of productivity despite the fact that your employees have less space to move around in.

Your new equipment will cost less to operate and allow your employees to get the job done quicker, which is exactly the formula you need to attract and keep more customers without having to move into a larger facility.

Part I: Trends Challenge the Material Handling Industry

In the June issue of MHEDA Edge, Steven Little, a keynote speaker at MHEDA’s recent annual convention, recapped six important worldwide trends that are already beginning to affect the material handling industry. Some trends are still in an embryonic stage with the development of applications capable of impacting our industry years in the future. Others are already making their presence known and changing the way we do business today.

We agree with Mr. Little that the following six trends are poised to change the material handling industry. We have added our own thoughts about the challenges these trends will pose as we move toward the future. We invite your comments on how our industry can best meet these coming challenges.

  1.  Demographics. The world’s population is aging. The U.S. isn’t the only country affected by the aging of post-WWII baby boomers. A quarter of Japan’s population is older than 55. Half the population of Western Europe has passed the half-century mark. On the other end of the scale, the number of collegiates in the U.S. is slowly increasing, indicating a potentially better educated employee pool. Changing demographics influence social values, politics and business processes, forcing a rethinking and restructuring of the ideas and systems that drive society — and business.
  2. Urbanization. Cities worldwide continue to grow larger. By 2000, 25 cities boasted populations greater than 10 million. By 2025, 62% of the world’s population is expected to live in cities. The logistics of providing for the needs of these compacted populations will require new thinking and applications.
  3. Immigration. Within a decade, Spanish will be the primary language spoken in 20% of U.S. homes. As with the 19th century influx of English-speaking immigrants — Irish, Scottish and British — Spanish-speaking immigrants are bringing a wealth of very diverse cultural differences and customs to our shores. America will again need to meet the challenge of assimilation, a process that always engenders significant change.

To be continued Monday.